With the latest cold, the noise from the science deniers has become overwhelming. They don't accept the difference between weather and climate. Climate is about long term statistical statements. Weather is immediate events. They are not the same. The polar vortex is not some new thing caused by global warming, nor is it a fantasy invented by eco-nuts. Every planet that has an atmosphere has a polar vortex. It's part of having an atmosphere on a large rotating object.
The arctic polar vortex has been measured since about 1950. You need good spatial data records from weather balloons or satellites to measure it properly, so the record is extremely short by climate standards. (Good resolution CO2 and temperature records go back almost 1 million years.) Sometimes the vortex is fairly circular and weak. Sometimes it is very strong and loopy. These bursts of extreme cold and warmth during the winter are the result of strong winds and large loops in the vortex. The strength of the vortex is categorized by the Arctic Oscillation Index.
The full record of arctic oscillation index data is shown in the figure below. I deliberately removed the labels to avoid unconscious bias. The horizontal axis is date, with 1950 either on the left or right. The vertical axis is vortex strength, with more intense either on the top or bottom. Do you see a pattern?
This is what the real data looks like. It's noise. You can draw a regression line, but it lacks statistical significance. You can do a power spectral analysis. There is no meaningful signal.
There is a lot of "don't know" in the world of real science. A "don't know" on the polar vortex does not imply anything about global warming. There is no confirmed relationship between the polar vortex and global warming, nor is there a strong theoretical reason to expect one. Sometimes weather is just weather.
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