Fairhaven, The River

Another CFL Update

2006 CFL sales for the US were announced. About 95 million were sold. This is a little bit less than one per household, there being 105 million households.

So it is time to abandon the "If everyone were to buy just one .... " advertisements in favor of "Now that we are saving .... " advertisements. This will be an interesting transition. The early adopters and holier than thou eco-fanatics don't like it when the unwashed masses accept a technology. It becomes so plebian and ordinary. But CFLs are making that change. With current models offering a variety of color balances, shapes now being reasonable, and prices becoming quite low, the CFL sales are transitioning to the basic mass market approaches. 2007 will easily exceed 2006. I think price changes were the primary factor. The price is now low enough that you recover the cost within a year. This means that renters and leaseholds now consider CFLs to be a reasonable purchase. (I doubt that this is a conscious careful accounting analysis, but renters do hesitate to spend money on things that will be left behind when they move.)

The next CFL challenge will be dimmers. I saw my first successful CFL dimmer installation a few weeks ago. It didn't have nasty flicker and did have a reasonable range of dimming. It did not require an exotic dimmer control either. The CFLs were not as cheap. They cost about $15. This is still a money saving choice, but nowhere near as attractive as non-dimmable CFLs.

After that is the challenge of the candelabra bulbs (those little ovoid things), track lighting, and reflector bulbs. These have both more difficult shape and size issues, plus usually need dimmers.

Absence of Regulations

An interesting little tidbit from last years DOE report:

Because refrigerators consume so much electricity, they have been the focus of State and Federal efficiency standards. It is interesting to note, however, that the efficiency of new refrigerators increased dramatically even prior to the advent of appliance efficiency standards. The unit energy consumption (UEC) for refrigerators declined from 1,986 kWh in 1972 to 1,077 in 1985.

Refrigerators are responsible for a little more than half of all home appliance consumption. They are now subject to regulation, but this is not really changing the efficiency trends. They are not replaced very quickly, and there is a ripple down effect of continued use as secondary or used refrigerators. So the substantial improvements in new units has a slow impact on total electricity consumption.

CFL Update

The 2006 figures are out.  CFL sales were 91 million, which is 10% short of one per household in the US.  Some of these are replacement units, but estimates are that more than half are new fixtures.  So CFL is basically mainstream.  This does mean that advertising needs to be more aimed at mid- and late- adopters.  It needs to be more along the lines of "come on in, the water's fine" and less of the "be first, be smarter" type.

Other changes:

• The first cardboard packaging is in use.  Back when the CFL price was high (above $10) the blister pack was needed because buyers of expensive items like to see them.  Also, back then there was significant variation in shape and a real need to look at the CFL to determine whether it would fit a fixture.
• The color temperature varieties are well established.  The old harsh blue flourescent is now soft white, bright white, or daylight with equal efficiency.  (This also applies to the traditional tubes.)

Prices continue to fall.  List is under $5, and real prices are $1-2 as loss leaders.  This shifts the cost breakeven time under a year.