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Recent Posts

  • Leap Seconds in Financial Times
  • Hope and enthusiasm vs reality
  • More eco-news, implementation and management skill matter
  • What it will take for EHRs to achieve that Visicalc moment
  • Some good news
  • US Security terms (sensitivity vs confidentiality vs consent)
  • A cruel standards writer
  • Asian Market info
  • The latest in sailboats
  • Paper Recycling
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Leap Seconds in Financial Times

The leap second issue made the Financial Times today.  I'll admit to some surprise.  They report that there are now just two nations holding strong for the leap second: the United Kingdom and China.  All the other major national participants favor either eliminating the leap second, or the proposal of the leap hour.  For those who missed it, the leap-hour proposal is to accumulate the rotational drift until it is over 30 minutes, and then jump all the world clocks by one hour.  This would then repeat after the accumulated drift had reached 60 minutes.  Under the leap-hour proposal the clocks would remain within an hour of matching earth rotation.

Opponents of the leap-hour proposal call it a meaningless fig-leaf proposal.  It will take many millenia to accumulate 30 minutes of drift.  By that time any agreement made today will be irrelevant.  They argue that we should just admit that UTC should be decoupled from having a precise relationship with earth rotation.  The drift rate is only about 0.5 seconds per year.  If it becomes necessary to have a re-adjustment it will be a long time in the future. They can handle it then with a special one time adjustment.

I don't understand why, but both the UK and China believe that preserving the one second precise relationship between earth rotation and time is more important than all the headaches that it causes for telecommunications and computer systems.

The FT predicts that the leap second will survive the next standards meeting.  I hope not.

December 23, 2009 | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Hope and enthusiasm vs reality

CNet reports big increases in the (very small) market for small wind systems.  This seems likely to be another case of hope and enthusiasm that is not justified by the reality.  The ever pragmatic Dutch have done a study of a dozen different small wind systems (report in Dutch, article  in English).  The result is that the Dutch will not subsidize or give special rates to small wind systems.  They do have special deals for the large wind systems.  But the economics are so poor in terms of cost per KWh or per ton of CO2 saved that they will not encourage small wind use.

Small wind will continue to have uses in special situations where they are the best economic choice.  But the romantic push for small wind all over suburbs does not make sense.

December 09, 2009 in Eco-policy, Energy Tech | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

More eco-news, implementation and management skill matter

The implementation and management of various eco-projects also matter a lot.  Among the various recent articles in Financial Times is one that describes the ongoing failure of the methane recovery systems from pig manure in Mexico.  I've mentioned the various successes in South Asia and elsewhere with these systems.  They are very important in many developing countries.  The technology itself was shown to work in Mexico, with a few successful systems.  But, construction quality problems, intertie and related problems wth the electrical grid, and other management problems have resulted in most of the systems not working. 

There has been a similar shift in the small locomotive industry.  The Green Goat hybrid locomotives have run into serious problems.  A problem with the batteries led to a major recall that drove the manufacturer into bankruptcy.  They've since been purchased and may recover, but  genset locomotives have taken 2/3 of the market.  The hybrid approach of batteries and one large engine is not superior to the approach of having 3 smaller engines and only running as many as are needed.

In both cases the concept was sound, but you need good management and implementation as well.

December 06, 2009 in Eco-policy, Energy Tech | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

What it will take for EHRs to achieve that Visicalc moment

John Halamka asks what will it take for EHR to have a Visicalc moment.  I'll answer based on three more examples:

  • The IBM Selectric
  • The HP 35 calculator
  • The HP business calculator (a flop)

The first two were explosive successes that predate Visicalc and the personal computer.  They were at least as big as Visicalc.  The Selectric eliminated key jams, messy ribbons, manual carraige return, and added the correction tape.  The HP 35 removed the problem of doing scientific calculations with adding machine and slide rule. But the HP business calculator was a flop.  A marketing executive at HP explained why, and his explanation holds true for Visicalc and other would be successes.

The big winners win because the potential user instantly recognizes the product as a solution to a personal problem.  The business calculator flopped because potential buyers didn't see the problem.  What was wrong with using printed interest rate payment tables?  Occasionally a buyer would be in a negotiation with someone who had a caclulator.  The differential advantage the caclulator gave of immediately knowing the implications of changes to terms made the value apparent.  But these were uncommon.   Buyers were rare.  The HP executive analogized to the hoof-operated fence cutter.  It's a spectacularly important product to beef cows.  But cows don't grasp the problem or see this as a solution.  So it will never succeed as a product.

For the EHR the win will be when the users (physicians, nurses, etc.) must see the EHR as a solution to a problem.  It's fairly easy to talk with them and learn what is it about their job that they love.  You quickly find things that are described as "this is why I love my work".  Make sure that the EHR does not interfere with these. Equally easy is finding parts of their job that they hate.  These are usually the wasted time, screwed up schedules, missing information, time wasting data entry, and stupid endless form filling.

If the EHR genuinely eliminates the parts of the job that they hate, it will be a winner.

I have seen this effect in radiology with PACS equipment.   One example is the transition to CR from plain film.  Nurses and techs hated the darkroom, developer, and chemicals.  They hated the problems getting exposure right.  They hated the delays carrying films around.  The CR eliminated these and were immediately popular.  A very recent one is the use of DICOM for retinopathy screening.  It enables doctors to grab the next study and read it when a scheduled exam is slightly delayed.  They hate sitting around for 5-10 minutes doing nothing.  It's not very long, but it's enough time to read one study.  The PACS workstation let them grab the next study, read it, and report it during delays.  Not only were the doctors happy, but they found that screening throughput increased 20% without changing the hours on the job.  The administrators were very happy.

November 28, 2009 in Healthcare | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Some good news

An ongoing failure provides some good news on the world energy tech front.  This failure is the  solar cooker efforts.

Solar cookers are one the enduring faith vs reason battles when aiding the poor in third world countries.  The current leading solar cooker costs about $10, uses mostly local materials, and meets about 75% of cooking needs.  Clouds, bad weather, and high temperature needs drive the remaining 25%.  They continue to fail in response to:

  • High efficiency wood/brush cookers.  These cost now about $2, use entirely local materials, and can meet 100% of cooking needs.  They have efficient designs and flues, so that the problems of smoke, accidental fires and burns are tremendously reduced.  They consume less fuel and can burn scavenged brush.  The net effect is also a 75% reduction in fuel use.  It's fairly obvious why these are tremendously popular and solar cookers are not.
  • Gobar gas systems are spreading steadily through South Asia.  These convert livestock manure into low grade gas.  They are highly popular in India and Nepal, with use slowly spreading elsewhere.   They are an easy transition for people who previously were using dried dung as fuel.  The gobar systems use dried dung, plant wastes, and controlled amounts of liquid in a gas digester to produce usable gas for cookers.  Gas cookers are much cleaner, safer,  and more efficient than dung fueled heaters. These systems are too expensive for the really poor, but subsidies bring them within affordable reach of the successful farmer with a livestock herd.  They are climate limited to places where the dung can be dried naturally.  This includes much of South Asia.
  • Variations on Gobar systems are showing up in other agricultural areas.  Indonesian pig farming, Thai pig farming, and US dairy farming all have introductory systems in operation.   These will become much more popular as the technology is understood, made more reliable, and the information about its use spreads.

These all act to reduce the deforestation in South Asia, and the manure gas systems also reduce the methane emissions from livestock.  They lower the immediate demand for fossil fuels, although this reduction is a very small percentage of world use.  They primarily make the agricultural areas much less dependent on fossil fuels.  There is only a little excess production to support more urban uses.  Variations on the cooker technology are also sold in Africa, where wood fueled cookers are also used.

The gobar systems may even improve life in Afghanistan if the civil war ever subsides enough to enable reconstruction of permanent fixtures like the qanats and construction of gobar gas generators.  The Gurkhas are certainly pushing for it (toward the end of the article).

November 28, 2009 in Eco-policy, Energy Tech | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

US Security terms (sensitivity vs confidentiality vs consent)

There is a confusion that I found in some HL7 documents, perhaps copied from some ISO documents, about how US Security classification terms work.  They seem to think that these are sensitivity terms.  In fact, they are much closer to consent OIDs and confidentiality categories.

The simple form of US categories is:
  •   Confidential
  •   Secret
  •   Top Secret
A person having a clearance for Confidential means that they have passed one form of background investigation.  Secret and Top Secret mean passing more stringent background investigations.  Rating a sentence in a document as "Secret" means that it is approved for disclosure to a person having a Secret or Top Secret clearance, but not to someone with only a Confidential or no clearance.  That is like the consent for disclosure in Healthcare.  The document is specifying a category of people to whom the information may be disclosed.  There is no hint as to what the consequences of this disclosure might be, so this is not like sensitivity.

The rules are of course more complex than that over-simplification.  There are also need-to-know rules.  These are vary similar to the patient and role-based rules found in healthcare.  Regardless of clearance levels, a classified document should only be disclosed to people who have a need to know.  This is usually because they are working on the project (analogous to Patient ID) and on a specific aspect of the project (analogous to role-based access).

There are also project or category specific access terms, which can generically be called codeword access.  Gaining codeword access requires additional clearance effort.  This may be merely an administrative matter or it may require substantial background investigations and other steps.  These usually require (but not always) a top secret clearance.  There is a large number of codeword projects and the codewords themselves are sometimes secret.  This kind of clearance is generically called "Special Access" and "Special Compartmentalized Intelligance".  But their operation is very much like a consent OID.  The difference from the general form is that it also has codeword specific clearance activity.

A document that is "Top Secret" with code word "Wet Cat" is only disclosable to someone approved for "Top Secret - Wet Cat".  That is basically the same as a document coded as available to any person approved for OID 1.2.3.4.5.  Both are opaque pointers that reveal nothing about the nature of the sensitivity.  You don't know whether "Wet Cat" is related to diplomatic activity, weapons technology, intelligence gathering, or anything else.  You don't know what the implications or severity of an unauthorized release will be.  All this is hidden, and that is by design.  The nature of sensitivity is itself often sensitive information.  This is like the healthcare consent model.

So there is a very clear misunderstanding in these documents when thay claim that these are sensitivity categories.

November 20, 2009 in Healthcare, Standards | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

A cruel standards writer

  There is a cruel standards author out there somewhere who said that SNTP could be used to achieve micro-second level synchronization.  This has led far too many people into mistaking it for an easy task.

  First, consider the timing issue of transmitting the SNTP query/response over ethernet.  The message size is about 100 bytes, including prefix and trailer sync signals.  So, on a 100 Mbit/s link this is 8 microseconds.  But, if it's a switch there is another prefix related delay.  And, if there is another message in transit at that moment the switch will buffer the SNTP message until that other message finishes.  A maximum length message (1500 bytes including prefix and trailer) will take 120 microseconds.  Since the switch will start the next message as soon as possible, this introduces a variation of 0-120 microseconds.  SNTP does not include the statistical estimation information needed to remove these variations.

To potentially reach microsecond level synchronization with query/response you must do the following:
 - Have a direct connection between client and source with no other systems or any other use of that link.  It can only be a one to one connection.  This eliminates the variability from other traffic.  (NTP has statistical estimator logic, so the variability can be removed.)
 - OR, have a single purpose network with only source broadcast and all client query eliminated.  This also eliminates that potential variability.  This allows one source to send time to other clients.  The clients must dedicate a network device to the exclusive use of the time system.

But, that is just eliminating the network variability.  What about system clock variability?  How long does it take for the OS to process the incoming network message and adjust its internal time?  When an application issues a time query to the OS, how long is the delay between request and response?  how accurate is the internal time computation?

The OS network delays can be measured.  You just need a high precision interval timer, logic analyzer, and strict configuration control over the ethernet switch.  Then you measure these delays for your system.  The biggest difficulty is within the OS.  Real time OS usually have stable interrupt response characteristics, so once you measure it, you can then use that as a correction factor.  But, general purpose OS, such as Windows, do not have a predictable interrupt response latency at the microsecond level.  If the OS gets really busy on high priority internal tasks it can take hundreds of microseconds to respond.  The network is usually treated as a low priority interrupt by general purpose OS.

Again, NTP uses statistical estimators to reduce this variability.

The next issue is, how accurate is the internal time?  The SNTP broadcasts can't be too frequent.  If you are constantly pinging the systems with high priority SNTP traffic, there won't be any time for the primary function.  The practical limit is usually 100-1000 pings per second.  So for at least a few milliseconds the local system clock needs to provide that microsecond level time measurement.  How will it do it?

The very old clock methods were simple but inaccurate.  The clock would just be incremented when the clock tick arrived.  If the SNTP broadcast is 100/s, then you increment the clock by 10ms each time.  This works fine if all you care about is 1s accuracy and don't mind that everything that happens during that 10ms interval is assigned to the exact same time.  For lots of administrative tasks this is a good solution.  It's cheap and easy.

For the microsecond level timing none of the purely tick related approaches will work.  There is no OS that can both get useful work done and process a million timing ticks per second.  Even the network cannot manage that.  You need a gigabit network before it can carry that many tick messages.  Instead, you need a local free running clock that provides a short term timer for periods of about a second.

Most simple CPUs and systems have such a timer.  The original PC had a separate interval timer chip that had three clocks.  One was programmed to provide an interrupting clock tick at a slow interval of 10-100 ticks per second.  This was used to maintain the long duration system clock.  Another could be programmed to increment an internal timer much more rapidly.  A typical increment rate might be every 10 microseconds.  This rate was usually limited by the available hardware crystal timing source.  The same capabilities are present in modern CPUs, usually with a faster hardware crystal and often integrated with other components onto a single chip.

In a system like that, when the application needs a time marker, it issues an OS request.  The OS uses the long duration system timer to get a base time and then corrects this by reading the high speed timer value and computing the proper offset.  If the OS has a proper real time priority structure this all happens with a fairly stable speed.  You can measure it with proper interval timer, logic analyzer, and similar equipment.  You get microsecond level accuracy.  Another excellent and easy to use high speed timer is the CPU cycle counter available on most CPUs.  But, multiprocessor CPUs and power saving through clock speed changes make this impractical on most new CPUs.  This is one reason that measurement equipment tends to avoid the very high performance CPUs.

The NTP systems will use the same approaches to obtain accuracy.  They use statistical estimation theory to eliminate some of the variability, so they can be used on a wider variety of operating systems and often without the use of logic analyzers to measure internal computer state.  (With new integrated processors it is hard to get the access needed to use a logic analyzer for these purposes.)  But we're dealing with the claim of microsecond level accuracy from SNTP.

The NTP systems also enable the use of atomic clock controlled pulse generators.  These can be attached to internal interval timers or they can be used as simple edge pulse timers.  SNTP lacks the logic to manage combining of clocks into a single more accurate time estimate.  The NTP use of atomic clocks as internal interval timers or as edge timers is based on using the atomic clock to measure the drift rate of the other clocks.  It is normal for the internal timer clocks of computers to be inaccurate by up to 1 ppm.  This can usually be ignored for administrative purposes.  One ppm is a drift of 1 second every two weeks.  It's stable enough to be accurate through a very long network dropout.  When using NTP and an atomic clock the drift rate can be measured, and it can be removed every second.  (Most simple atomic clocks are set at 1 pulse per second).  With a measured drift rate there is a residual drift due to temperature and atmospheric pressure changes to the crystal.  These are usually under 0.01 ppm.  So you've met the sub microsecond requirement.  SNTP does not include the information needed to do this.

So we have a cruel standards writer.  Yes, you can make microsecond level accuracy with SNTP.  Of course you also need specialized network design, logic analyzers, a real time OS, precision interval timers, and a lot of custom product engineering. 

 

November 02, 2009 in Standards | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Asian Market info

This is just so that googler's can find this information.  The New Oriental Supermarket in Littleton MA is open from 10AM to 8PM seven days per week.

They are the typical low budget asian market, with no web site.  It has the usual shelves of dried fungus, more shelves of dried stuff you can't recognize that is labeled only in Chinese.  Several refrigerated units have recognizable and unrecognizable fresh vegetables.  There is an aisle of various kinds of noodles and all sorts of rice.  Several freezer cases are full of prepared dumplings, stuffed rolls, etc.

This will maybe save a few people phone calls or wasted trips.

June 29, 2009 | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

The latest in sailboats

I noticed this nice writeup on the early experiences with the Beluga Skysails.  It gives some real numbers, like a 10% reduction in fuel use for the ship, and a realistic report on how the highly risk averse maritime industry evaluates and reacts to a radically new technology.  Kudos to the US Navy for supporting this effort with their long term contract to use the ship.  They understand that it takes several years of genuine operational experience to settle in a technology.  (At least in this case.  The USN overall track record is a lot shakier.)  A few more years and some higher fuel prices may see more of these ships be launched or retro-fitted.  The retro-fit alternative is one thing that makes this technology interesting.  It reduces the capital investments needed.

The cover page has a better picture.  The photo in the article is some heavily photoshopped composite.  I've seen the real ship carrying the real wind turbines, and it did not look like that at all.  They did go for a symbolic use of a sail assisted ship carrying wind turbine on it's first commercial voyage.  But it was only turbine blades above decks.

May 26, 2009 in Eco-policy, Energy Tech | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Paper Recycling

The 2008 figures for paper recycling in the US are out.  The impact of a full year of recession is a decrease in per capita paper utilization, but no drop in the recycling trend.  Since the 1970's the trend has been an increase of about 0.75% per year in recycling content.  The recession did not interfere.  2008 saw an overall 57% recycling rate.  The US remains on target for the goal of 60% by 2013.

Next year will need examining also.  The municipal recycling efforts are much harder to subsidize than before.  Revenues from all sources are down.  But recycling is still less expensive per ton than trash disposal.   It's tougher for towns to use revenue to cover collection costs, but most towns realize that pushing recycling efforts is still a cost reducer.  If the word gets out to the public properly, the percentage improvement should hold.

I saw the latest figures for some of the local paper collecting bins.  The net income is pennies per ton.  The best money is from corrugated boxboard.  It gets both repeat use as boxes and excellent recycling yield.   Our town curbside collection contract is a mixed contract covering containers and paper with no further breakdown.  We pay for each ton collected, but it's about $50 less per ton than the regular trash disposal.

May 24, 2009 in Current Affairs, Eco-policy | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

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